Hurricane Polo study finds warming climate intensified record Pacific storm

What the Hurricane Polo attribution study found

A rapid attribution study published on 15 October concluded that human-driven global warming contributed at least as much as El Niño to the remarkable strength of Hurricane Polo in the eastern Pacific. The storm intensified very quickly during September and reached Category 5 strength.

The role of ocean warmth and El Niño

The World Weather Attribution team compared climate conditions with a counterfactual world without the same level of human-caused warming. Its analysis suggested that added warmth to the ocean made the most intense storms considerably more likely. Such estimates have uncertainty ranges and depend on available observations and climate models.

Understanding scientific uncertainty

The study had not yet completed conventional peer review at publication, although the researchers used established attribution approaches. It cannot say climate change alone caused Polo; instead it examines how the background environment influenced its probability and strength.

Sources and verification

Read the report and check for later revisions: Primary reporting source

Photo is an archival image, not a photo of this event.

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