IMF warns prolonged Middle East fighting could renew global energy shock

IMF warning on oil transport and production

The International Monetary Fund warned on 15 October that a prolonged war and further disruptions to production, transport or infrastructure present major risks to Middle Eastern and Central Asian economies. Officials noted that oil inventories, alternate routes and pre-conflict financial buffers helped soften the first energy shock but cannot indefinitely replace normal flows.

How impacts differ across economies

The effects vary by country. Energy producers can lose output and export revenue; importers face higher fuel costs and inflation. The IMF expects a sharp contraction for the broader Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan grouping this year, with a recovery dependent on stability and a resumption of trade in 2027.

What the forecast depends on

Forecasts depend on uncertain security and commodity markets. Policy recommendations emphasize inflation control, resilient public finances and making critical infrastructure less vulnerable. Readers should distinguish projections from recorded economic outcomes.

Sources and verification

Read the report and check for later revisions: Primary reporting source

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